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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 47

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.92 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 47, worth -3.17 EP
KICK -1.96 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.29 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 13, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model