Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 82

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

(11:56) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to PHI 31, Center-86-K.Nelson. 38-K.Barner to PHI 41 for 10 yards (19-A.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.89 EP
61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 82, worth -4.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model