4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 19 at the 32

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 33

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.84 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 32, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 42, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model