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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 72

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(8:32) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to PHI 26, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 72, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 30, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP