4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 79

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 5-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to PHI 44, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-86-K.Nelson.

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 79, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 36, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model