Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 97

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

(9:36) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to PHI 49, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-31-R.Mostert.

The Three Options

GO -4.04 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.08 EP
65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 97, worth -6.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model