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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 32

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:06) 4-J.Elliott 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.37 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP