4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 37

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 5-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to PHI 2, impetus ends at PHI 1, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-44-K.Juszczyk.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.47 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 37, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP