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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 89

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-D.Jones punts 40 yards to SF 49, Center-45-R.Lovato. 81-T.Taylor to PHI 44 for 7 yards (52-N.Goode).

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.92 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 89, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model