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San Francisco 49ers

HC Chip Kelly
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LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
Saturday 2016-12-24 · 16:25 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

SF
54.3%
LA
45.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.270 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Jared Goff (LA) -0.322 vs Colin Kaepernick (SF) -0.089 EPA/dropback
  • SF defense: +0.146 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • LA on 3 more days rest than SF

Predicted Final Score

SF 21
–
LA 20
Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

SF

Joe Staley T Doubtful Hamstring
Dontae Johnson CB Doubtful Groin
Glenn Dorsey DT Questionable Knee
Marcus Martin C Questionable Ankle

LA

Lamarcus Joyner CB Doubtful Ankle
Mike Thomas WR Doubtful Hip
Maurice Alexander S Doubtful Concussion
Bradley Marquez WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 22
–
LA 21

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:08 TD SF (9:08) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short middle to 28-C.Hyde for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – LA 0
  • Q1 04:13 TD LA (4:13) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – LA 6
  • Q1 02:41 TD LA (2:41) 11-T.Austin left end for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – LA 13
  • Q4 10:38 TD LA (10:38) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – LA 20
  • Q4 05:14 TD SF (5:14) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick scrambles up the middle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – LA 21
  • Q4 00:36 TD SF (:36) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short middle to 81-R.Streater for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. SF 20 – LA 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 14 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:22) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to LA 18, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin to LA 23 for 5 yards (46-M.Ball). PENALTY on LA-32-T.Hill, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 23.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 74%

    (5:37) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 88-L.Kendricks pushed ob at SF 6 for 24 yards (29-J.Tartt).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 12 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 22%

    (12:41) 5-B.Pinion punts 34 yards to LA 18, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:28) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to SF 24, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 17-J.Kerley to SF 36 for 12 yards (34-C.Reynolds). PENALTY on SF-38-J.Shepherd, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SF 24. Penalty on SF-30-P.Iworah, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:58) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to LA 36, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin to LA 34 for -2 yards (40-V.Sunseri; 57-M.Wilhoite).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:14) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to SF 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 47%

    (2:00) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (:45) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to SF 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (:13) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to LA 39, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin to LA 48 for 9 yards (86-K.Nelson).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 10 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:34) 6-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to SF 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 4 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (8:31) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to LA 33, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-45-C.Bradford.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 11 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:04) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to SF 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 9 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:32) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to LA 42, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin to LA 42 for no gain (88-G.Celek). FUMBLES (88-G.Celek), recovered by LA-35-M.Jordan at LA 41. 35-M.Jordan to LA 41 for no gain (30-P.Iworah).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 19 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (4:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to SF 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:25) 5-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to LA 18, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin to LA 19 for 1 yard (40-V.Sunseri).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:02) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to SF 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 17-J.Kerley to SF 34 for 9 yards (32-T.Hill).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 23
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 86%

    (5:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short left to 81-R.Streater pushed ob at LA 13 for 10 yards (33-E.Gaines).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:15) 6-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to SF 27, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 14 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (:07) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to LA 15, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.