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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 66

Los Angeles Rams 21 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 6-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to SF 27, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.41 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model