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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 52

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 5-B.Pinion punts 34 yards to LA 18, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.15 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 52, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.96 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model