4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 79

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to LA 33, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-45-C.Bradford.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.85 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 79, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 36, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model