Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 68

Los Angeles Rams 14 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(7:04) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to SF 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.27 EP
70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model