Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 19 at the 68

Los Angeles Rams 14 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(4:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to SF 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.83 EP
77% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model