Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 56

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 14

(1:25) 5-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to LA 18, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin to LA 19 for 1 yard (40-V.Sunseri).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.77 EP
66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 56, worth -3.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model