4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 23

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(5:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short left to 81-R.Streater pushed ob at LA 13 for 10 yards (33-E.Gaines).

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.80 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.61 EP