Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 68

Los Angeles Rams 14 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(10:34) 6-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to SF 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.30 EP
69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model