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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 62

Los Angeles Rams 14 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to SF 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 17-J.Kerley to SF 34 for 9 yards (32-T.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.10 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model