Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 82

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to LA 42, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin to LA 42 for no gain (88-G.Celek). FUMBLES (88-G.Celek), recovered by LA-35-M.Jordan at LA 41. 35-M.Jordan to LA 41 for no gain (30-P.Iworah).

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.85 EP
64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 82, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model