Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 79

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 14

(:13) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to LA 39, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin to LA 48 for 9 yards (86-K.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP

71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.04 EP
29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 79, worth -2.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model