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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 30

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:37) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 88-L.Kendricks pushed ob at SF 6 for 24 yards (29-J.Tartt).

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.44 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model