Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 57

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(12:22) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to LA 18, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin to LA 23 for 5 yards (46-M.Ball). PENALTY on LA-32-T.Hill, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.86 EP
73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 57, worth -3.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model