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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2016-11-06 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 💨 Windy Spread -3.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

PIT
54.9%
BAL
45.1%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: -0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.053 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.117 EPA/dropback (PIT starting Ben Roethlisberger in place of Landry Jones)
  • BAL defense: -0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 21
–
BAL 20
Projected margin: PIT by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

PIT

Cody Wallace C Out Knee
William Gay CB Questionable Foot
Ben Roethlisberger QB Questionable Knee
DeAngelo Williams RB Questionable Knee

BAL

Kamalei Correa LB Out Thigh
Elvis Dumervil LB Out Foot
Crockett Gillmore TE Out Thigh
Shareece Wright CB Doubtful Thigh
C.J. Mosley LB Questionable Thigh
Steve Smith WR Questionable Ankle
Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Foot
Terrell Suggs LB Questionable Biceps
Lardarius Webb CB Questionable Thigh
Marshal Yanda G Questionable Shoulder
Tavon Young CB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 14
–
BAL 21

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:21 TD BAL (1:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 17-M.Wallace for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Flacco's 95-yard TD pass to Wallace is the longest pass play in Ravens history. PIT 0 – BAL 6
  • Q2 00:08 FG BAL (:08) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Penalty on PIT-29-S.Thomas, Defensive Offside, declined. PIT 0 – BAL 10
  • Q3 04:55 FG BAL (4:55) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. PIT 0 – BAL 13
  • Q4 13:44 TD BAL (13:44) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punt is BLOCKED by 37-J.Allen, Center-60-G.Warren, RECOVERED by BAL-10-C.Moore at PIT 14. 10-C.Moore for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – BAL 19
  • Q4 08:47 TD PIT (8:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 84-A.Brown for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – BAL 21
  • Q4 00:56 TD PIT (:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger scrambles up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – BAL 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:33) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 28 yards to BAL 44, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 12 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 30%

    (10:48) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 33 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 5 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (9:16) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 61 yards to BAL 22, Center-60-G.Warren. 14-D.Hester to BAL 36 for 14 yards (98-V.Williams).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 47%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 51 yards to BAL 4, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-29-S.Thomas.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (14:56) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to BAL 16, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-51-S.Johnson.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:46) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to PIT 34, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 41 for 7 yards (48-P.Onwuasor).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 18 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (11:14) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to BAL 25, Center-60-G.Warren. 14-D.Hester to BAL 37 for 12 yards (28-S.Davis). PENALTY on BAL-42-M.Huff, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at BAL 25.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 40%

    (6:36) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 33 yards to PIT 8, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-48-P.Onwuasor.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (4:30) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 56 yards to BAL 28, Center-60-G.Warren. 14-D.Hester pushed ob at BAL 29 for 1 yard (83-C.Hamilton).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (3:30) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to PIT 17, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:57) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 54 yards to BAL 26, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-51-S.Johnson.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 15 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 68%

    (:08) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Penalty on PIT-29-S.Thomas, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:46) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to PIT 14, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 84-A.Brown. PENALTY on BAL-84-D.Waller, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 14.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (8:41) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to BAL 24, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 15 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:34) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to PIT 34, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-A.Brown ran ob at PIT 34 for no gain.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 24
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 82%

    (4:55) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:26) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 54 yards to BAL 23, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 17 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (:02) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 40 yards to PIT 31, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:44) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punt is BLOCKED by 37-J.Allen, Center-60-G.Warren, RECOVERED by BAL-10-C.Moore at PIT 14. 10-C.Moore for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 84%

    (8:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 84-A.Brown for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (7:00) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 10 for -2 yards (84-D.Waller).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 18 at the 25 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 80%

    (3:09) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep middle to 14-S.Coates.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 15 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:14) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to PIT 35, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.