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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 41

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:36) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 33 yards to PIT 8, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-48-P.Onwuasor.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.72 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP