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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 80

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:14) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to PIT 35, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.01 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.48 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model