Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

(8:41) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to BAL 24, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.94 EP
55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model