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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 59

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:46) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to PIT 14, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 84-A.Brown. PENALTY on BAL-84-D.Waller, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 14.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.71 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model