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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 24

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:55) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.58 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP