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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 23

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(8:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 84-A.Brown for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.49 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model