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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 12 at the 45

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:48) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 33 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +4.04 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model