Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 18 at the 67

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(11:14) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to BAL 25, Center-60-G.Warren. 14-D.Hester to BAL 37 for 12 yards (28-S.Davis). PENALTY on BAL-42-M.Huff, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at BAL 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.66 EP
75% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 67, worth -3.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model