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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 55

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:00) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 10 for -2 yards (84-D.Waller).

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.29 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EP