Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 17 at the 71

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

(:02) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 40 yards to PIT 31, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.58 EP
75% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model