Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 82

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

(12:46) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to PIT 34, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 41 for 7 yards (48-P.Onwuasor).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.32 EP
62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model