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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 63

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:30) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to PIT 17, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.85 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP