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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 18 at the 25

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(3:09) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep middle to 14-S.Coates.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
What Happened
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.20 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.04 EP