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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
Monday 2016-10-24 · 20:30 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 8.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

HOU
29.0%
DEN
71.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.137 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.140 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to DEN: Trevor Siemian (DEN) +0.112 vs Brock Osweiler (HOU) -0.059 EPA/dropback
  • DEN offense: -0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • DEN on 3 more days rest than HOU

Predicted Final Score

HOU 16
–
DEN 22
Projected margin: DEN by 6 Projected total: 38

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

HOU

Quintin Demps S Out Calf
Jonathan Grimes RB Out Ankle
Kevin Johnson CB Out Foot
Brian Peters LB Out Quadricep

DEN

DeMarcus Ware LB Out Forearm
Cody Latimer WR Questionable Concussion
Russell Okung T Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 9
–
DEN 27

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:15 FG HOU (7:15) 8-N.Novak 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 3 – DEN 0
  • Q1 00:25 FG HOU (:25) 8-N.Novak 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 6 – DEN 0
  • Q2 09:15 TD DEN (9:15) 22-C.Anderson left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – DEN 6
  • Q2 04:08 TD DEN (4:08) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short left to 88-D.Thomas for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – DEN 13
  • Q3 09:12 FG HOU (9:12) 8-N.Novak 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 9 – DEN 14
  • Q3 00:45 TD DEN (:45) 23-D.Booker right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 9 – DEN 20
  • Q4 11:37 FG DEN (11:37) 8-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. HOU 9 – DEN 24
  • Q4 02:00 FG DEN (2:00) 8-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. HOU 9 – DEN 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:49) 9-S.Lechler punts 62 yards to DEN 8, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 24 for 16 yards (53-M.Bullough).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to HOU 30, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 40 for 10 yards (52-C.Nelson).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 22%

    (11:19) 9-S.Lechler punts 44 yards to DEN 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (9:38) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to HOU 41, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 42 for 1 yard (52-C.Nelson).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 8 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 84%

    (7:15) 8-N.Novak 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:35) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to HOU 26, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds. PENALTY on DEN-42-C.Kreiter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 26.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 84%

    (:25) 8-N.Novak 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (7:41) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to DEN 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 32 for 4 yards (20-D.Jones).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:04) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to DEN 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 23 for 13 yards (32-R.Nelson).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (14:06) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to HOU 17, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

    (9:12) 8-N.Novak 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:42) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to HOU 43, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (11:37) 8-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:29) 9-S.Lechler punts 30 yards to DEN 35, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds. Ball was tipped by Den 48

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 40%

    (6:33) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to HOU 8, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:43) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete short right to 84-R.Griffin (95-D.Wolfe).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 94%

    (2:00) 8-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 33%

    (:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short right to 11-J.Strong to DEN 45 for 2 yards (25-C.Harris Jr.).