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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 14

Denver Broncos 24 – Houston Texans 9

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 8-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +2.98 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 14, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model