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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 44

Denver Broncos 24 – Houston Texans 9

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to HOU 8, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.71 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP