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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 65

Houston Texans 9 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(9:29) 9-S.Lechler punts 30 yards to DEN 35, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds. Ball was tipped by Den 48

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.34 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 65, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 23, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model