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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 25

Houston Texans 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 8-N.Novak 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.75 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model