Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 68

Houston Texans 6 – Denver Broncos 14

(1:04) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to DEN 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 23 for 13 yards (32-R.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.54 EP
62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model