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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 52

Houston Texans 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 9-S.Lechler punts 44 yards to DEN 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.50 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 52, worth -3.18 EP
KICK -2.05 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -3.12 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP