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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 47

Houston Texans 9 – Denver Broncos 27

What Actually Happened

(:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short right to 11-J.Strong to DEN 45 for 2 yards (25-C.Harris Jr.).

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +0.78 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.03 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -0.19 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 13, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP