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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 76

Houston Texans 6 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(7:41) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to DEN 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 32 for 4 yards (20-D.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.14 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 76, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 34, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP