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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 3

Denver Broncos 21 – Houston Texans 9

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 8-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.31 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 3, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP