Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 76

Denver Broncos 0 – Houston Texans 0

(12:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to HOU 30, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 40 for 10 yards (52-C.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +2.21 EP
68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model