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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 66

Denver Broncos 14 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(14:06) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to HOU 17, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 24, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP