Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 66

Houston Texans 9 – Denver Broncos 24

(4:43) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete short right to 84-R.Griffin (95-D.Wolfe).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

What Happened

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.87 EP
70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.18 EP